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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, October 26, 2018

Keep in mind that we are trading winter months now, so of course there is stronger demand for natural gas due to temperatures in the United States. However, I also recognize that there is the possibility of an “El Niño winter” in the United States, which means milder temperatures. If that does turn out to be the case, it’s likely that natural gas demand will plummet. That of course will drive prices down. Beyond that, I recognize that the overall attitude of market participants is probably a bit complacent, so I think that if we were to break down below the 50 day moving average pictured on the chart, that might send more selling pressure into the market.

However, my base case scenario over the next several weeks, if not few months will be that we go back and forth between the $3.10 level and the bottom and the $3.40 level on the top. The current front month and the futures market is the December contract, which of course is a heavy demand timeframe in the northeastern part of the United States. Pay attention to inventory numbers, because they have been a bit bearish lately, but nothing that the market seems overly concerned about. That could change if it continues though, and we could get a flush lower because of the natural bearishness of this commodity. I don’t think that we will break above the $3.40 level in the short term, I believe that is probably going to hold intact.

NATGAS Video 26.10.18

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