Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to See a Recovery

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 04-01-2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

You can see natural gas has shown itself to be a little bit noisy, initially falling, but then turned around to show signs of life again. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where we continue to bounce around the 50-day EMA. Quite frankly, I think this is a market that’s going to be very difficult to get overly bullish and just simply because the winter has been such a bust up to this point. I mean you can’t let the market burn you a couple of times and although it does look somewhat positive at the moment the reality is that the futures market is already pricing in February, meaning that we’re almost to the end of winter as far as the futures are concerned.

With that being the case, the $2.50 level underneath I think is a significant floor. If we can break down below there, then opening up the $2.25 level is a very real possibility. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the candlestick from the Tuesday session, it could open up a move to the $2.88 level. But right now, I think more or less, we are in a zone that I would consider to be fair value based upon historic momentum in both directions. We are probably going to try to carve out some type of range to coast through for the rest of winter, but a sudden cold snap certainly could put some bullish pressure on this market. But there has been such an oversupply of natural gas that it’s difficult to imagine anything being sustainable.

Keep in mind natural gas is extraordinarily volatile under the best of conditions, so regardless of what you do, position sizing is going to be absolutely crucial here. That’s normally the case, but the fact that we are swimming upstream certainly will make that even more important, so therefore I think you’ve got a situation where the upside could very well prevail, but you are going to need to be very nimble about your positioning.

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