Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Show Choppy Behavior

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday, as it looks like we are starting to run out of steam. That being said, the $5.50 level underneath has offered support that seems to extend down to the $5.00 level, which is also going to be backed up by the 50 day EMA as it approaches. We have seen plenty of momentum to the upside over the last several months, but at this point in time we have that ask, “who is left to start buying now?”

NATGAS Video 18.10.21

If we turn around a break above the $6.00 level, then it is likely that we go looking towards the $6.50 level. The market certainly looks a bit exhausted, but you can also make an argument for the fact that we should continue to see more demand than supply overall. That being said, a lot of people do not pay close attention to the fact that this is “Henry Hub Natural Gas”, meaning that it is very specific to the United States. There are other natural gas contracts out there in places like the Netherlands, but they are much smaller. For what it is worth, they are also trading at 6 times what this one is. This is the catch with natural gas, it is a very localized market, and therefore you have to be cautious of what you are actually trading.

While there has been a massive slump in natural gas refinery over the last several months, and of course we had a massive heat wave this year in the United States, it is only a matter of time before the supply catches back out. While we are very tight in supply at the moment, the markets have doubled in price over just the last handful of months. Momentum is starting to wane. This does not mean I am looking to short though.

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