Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Drift Lower Again
Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 07.06.23
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, losing just a bit over 2% overnight. Natural gas markets have struggled as of late, mainly due to the seasonal effects. Keep in mind that one of the big drivers of natural gas demand the contract will be heating in the northern hemisphere, and of course as we are heading into the summer time, there will be a lot less demand out there. Because of this, it’s not a huge surprise to see this market just simply chop back and forth.
The 50-Day EMA sits above and should offer a significant amount of resistance. A market that moves toward that indicator is probably one that we can start selling, especially if there are signs of exhaustion. Between now and the end of summer, I expect to see this market go back and forth between the $2.00 level underneath, and the $3.00 level above. This might be the so-called “summer range” that we will find ourselves in, which is quite typical.
That being said, there is going to be the occasional heat wave that hits the northern hemisphere, and that will drive up the price occasionally. This will more likely than not end up being a selling opportunity, but I think the real move comes later this summer, as the Europeans will have to refill their natural gas storage, as they prepare for another winter without Russian gas. Because of this, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior between now and the end of summer, when I expect prices in natural gas to go higher. At that point, it would not be surprising to see natural gas raced toward the $4.00 level.
It is worth noting that the $2.00 level is supported, that support extends all the way down to the $1.80 level, so therefore I think of it more or less as a zone. I like fading rallies going forward, because I do believe the demand for natural gas continues to suffer not only the seasonal effects, but also industrial demand as the economy certainly looks as if it is slowing down.
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