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Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, March 21, 2019

Natural gas markets have fallen again during the day on Wednesday, as we continue to see trouble hanging onto gains. At this point, it’s very likely that we will continue to sell off on short-term rallies, and that of course gives us plenty of short timeframe opportunities. Ultimately, the 50 day EMA just above will continue to cause bearish pressure, and near the $3.00 level there should be a massive amount of resistance as well.

NATGAS Video 21.03.19

To the downside, I see a significant amount of support at the $2.75 level, and then down to the $2.60 level. The absolute “floor” of the market is closer to the $2.50 level, and I think it will be almost impossible to break down through there. Because of this, I’m looking for short-term trades only, and not some type of position trade like we could have made a couple of months ago. Ultimately, this is a market that is oversupplied from a longer-term standpoint, so it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which I will be buying this market, at least until next winter in the United States. Speaking of which, we are exiting the cold temperatures in the northeastern part of the United States, which of course will put a damper on demand overall.

Beyond that, we also have to worry about global demand due to the global economy slowing, driving down the demand for natural gas by industry. If that continues to be an issue, that as yet another reason to start selling on rallies.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

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