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Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas markets fall again on Friday

By:
Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jun 30, 2018, 03:47 UTC

Natural gas markets fell again during the day on Friday, breaking down to the $2.90 level as I record this. Overall, I think that the natural gas markets are oversupplied, and we will continue to see that work against the value of natural gas longer-term. However, recently we have been consolidating and of course the market continues to focus on next week rather than longer term fundamentals.

Natural gas daily chart, July 02, 2018

Natural gas markets broke down below the $2.95 level during the day, tried to retake that level, then felt towards the $2.90 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be one that you can sell on rallies, but I also recognize that there is a significant amount of support at the $2.88 level underneath. It’s once we break there that I think that the aggressive sellers will come in and double up on their positions. That should send this market looking towards the $2.60 level, which of course is a much more substantial move. I rally from here should be a selling opportunity given enough time, and I think that the buyers will be looking at short-term perspectives at best.

The $3.00 level above continues offer resistance, extending to the $3.03 level after that. Overall, this is a market that should continue to be noisy, as most traders focus on next week’s weather reports more than anything else. Overall, we are getting close to a time of year where demand could be dropping off, and if that’s the case we should continue to see a bearish pressure come in every time at rallies and assign of exhaustion on these rallies is a perfect invitation to get short. Longer-term, I think $2.60 remains the overall target.

NATGAS Video 02.07.18

About the Author

Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.

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