Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Hesitate

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 20.06.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have done very little during the tradning session on Monday, as it was Juneteenth in the United States. After all, trading will have been very limited on the electronic side, so at this point it looks like the market is going to continue to hang around in this general vicinity. Underneath, the 50-Day EMA comes back into the picture just underneath and could offer a little bit of support. On the upside, the $3.00 level could be a major barrier. All things being equal, this is a situation where you see a lot of noise more than anything else.

The natural gas markets are in the midst of summertime trading, which means it is relatively tight, and it’s common to see a lot of sideways and nonsensical trading. Keep in mind that demand for natural gas does drop rather significantly in the summer, as heating no longer becomes a major driver of price. Furthermore, we have to worry about whether or not the industrial demand out there will continue to drive pricing as well. All things being equal, I do think that we are essentially in a range, with the $2.00 level underneath being massive support, while the $3.00 level above is massive resistance. With this being the case, the 50-Day EMA is right around this area as well, therefore I think we’ve got a situation where you are trading back and forth until we get closer to the winter, when demand will certainly pick out.

Furthermore, the market is likely to continue to pay close attention to whether or not the Europeans will be having to restock natural gas supplies this winter, especially now that the Groningen gas fields are being shut down and of course the Russian natural gas supply is not going to be available as the war in Ukraine continues to be a major factor. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but I do think that the longer term traders are starting to build up a position for later this year. With that being the case, I think the market will eventually find a shot higher, but we are months away from that. In the meantime, it’s all about back-and-forth trading.

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