Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets hit trendline

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, slamming into a major downtrend line. This may be in sympathy to the crude oil market trying to take off, but at this point it’s likely that we continue to see downward pressure.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, August 29, 2019
Three gas pipelines in a green field with blue sky

Natural gas markets rallied quite significantly during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA and of course the downtrend line that is so prominent on this chart. This is at roughly $2.25, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The next couple of days will be crucial for this market, because we are getting relatively close to the time of year where you start to see people try to step in front of the cyclical bounce.

NATGAS Video 29.08.19

We aren’t quite there yet, but it looks very likely that we will continue to pull back in the short term. We probably are roughly one month away from the breakout but we are trying to form some type of basing pattern. I think this suggests that we could go down towards the $2.00 level again, but I don’t know that we break through their quite yet. Quite frankly, there has to be a ton of stop loss orders down there that people are trying to trigger, but I don’t know that we will get enough momentum to finally break down through there. Ultimately, I anticipate that short-term exhaustion candles will continue to offer opportunities to sell this market, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see short-term moves. Longer-term, we will eventually get the impulsive weekly candle that signals the kick off to the bullish season, but we aren’t there yet and it’s probably a good month away.

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