Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Hover at 50-day EMA

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video for 17.07.23

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have rallied ever so slightly during the day on Friday as we continue to hang around the 50-Day EMA, an indicator that a lot of people will pay close attention to. Because of this, it looks like we are trying to stabilize a bit and quite frankly over the longer term it looks like we are still trying to form some type of bottoming pattern, and this of course makes quite a bit of sense considering what’s going on from a fundamental standpoint.

The European Union will be spending most of this year trying to recover its natural gas supply, and of course it will not have that cheap natural gas coming from Russia. In fact, it’s interesting that we are currently at the same levels that we were at previously, when Russia was able to send natural gas directly into the European Union without hassle. As things stand right now, Europeans are buying natural gas from the Chinese and the Indians, who buy it from the Russians. This is a very long roundabout way of avoiding sanctions, while keeping up bluster.

The true solution is to buy liquefied natural gas from the United States, and that is going to drive the price of this contract higher, as it is based on sales from Henry, Louisiana. With that being said, the market is likely to continue to grind back and forth in this area, but given enough time I do believe that we will probably see this market break above the $3.00 level. If and when that happens, it would be the sign that the market is ready to make a bigger move.

In general, natural gas is typically in a bit of a summer range this time of the year, so it’s not a huge surprise to see that we are stuck between the $3.00 level above and the $2.00 level below. Cyclical patterns in this market suggest that in a couple of months, we should really start to take off. Because of this, I look at this more or less as an investment, but you can treat it as a short-term trading opportunity on dips.

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