Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets rally slightly

Natural gas markets gapped a bit higher to the upside on Tuesday, but then pulled back to fill that gap before rallying again. At this point, we are very negative and therefore selling the natural gas market makes quite a bit of sense. However, we are a bit extended so it’s likely that a relief rally was needed.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, August 07, 2019

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, showing signs of relief, but at this point I think it’s more or less a “relief rally.” At this point, the $2.20 level above should offer resistance, as it is the bottom of the shooting star, and of course an area that has been supportive and resistive in the past. At this point, that previous support should show a significant amount of selling pressure, so I think it’s only a matter time before we continue to drive lower. The 50 day EMA above, which is pictured in red, should continue to be important though based upon what we have seen recently. This is a market that has shown a proclivity to continue to go lower, as there is a huge amount of fundamental reasons for natural gas to continue to drift lower.

NATGAS Video 07.08.19

Ultimately, the market seems keen to test the $2.00 level, an area that will of course offer a lot of interest. The large, round, psychologically significant figure is an area that a lot of people will pay attention to. This is a market that will continue to react to the level, and as we are oversupplied I think we are simply looking for selling opportunities after rallies. We are trading the September month, which isn’t particularly strong longer term. However, if we wait a couple of months, the idea is that we will get the seasonal bump higher. Between now and then though, I continue to fade rallies.

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