Christopher Lewis
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Natural Gas

Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday to finish the week on a positive hand. The $3.00 level above is significant in its resistance, but perhaps more importantly at psychology. I think at this point in time it is likely that the market is going to continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in this area, and I also think that the indicator that I am paying the most attention to over the next couple of weeks will be the 50 day EMA, which is approaching price action and has been important more than once. It is when we break down below there that I think you will see an acceleration of the selling pressure to reach down towards the gap underneath that has yet to be filled.

NATGAS Video 31.05.21

To the upside, I think that the $3.20 level is a major ceiling in the market, but I do not necessarily believe that we get anywhere near it, as we are more towards the top of the overall consolidation range, and you could make an argument that part of what we have seen lately has been a reach for liquidity, so sellers can come back in. Yes, there will be more demand for natural gas due to the reopening trade, but quite frankly this is by far the biggest laggard when it comes to the commodity markets, so I think it will be the first to give way to the downside. At this point, I think the market will continue to offer selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion after short-term spikes in price.

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