Natural gas markets have been range bound for quite some time, with the $3.00 level offering the beginning of significant resistance. Granted, it extends all the way to the $3.10 level, so it isn’t exactly the easiest short to put on. However, when you back up and look at the longer-term charts, this is an area that has seen a lot of selling pressure. This is mainly because a lot of natural gas suppliers are profitable at the $3.00 level, so they are more than willing to dump it out into the open market.
At this point, buying is futile, because you would be “chasing the trade.” This is a classic retail trader mistake, so if you are bullish of natural gas longer-term, you simply must wait for some type of pullback from this point. If you do not, I suspect you will regret that down the road.
If we did break above the $3.10 level, then I think natural gas could go as high as $3.40 based upon previous moves. Needless to say, it would take a significant amount of momentum to make that happen, but it is possible. As for myself, I will be sitting on the sidelines and waiting for some type of negativity to show up or simply some type of exhaustion that I can start taking advantage of. At that point, I believe that we could start to see a very large move to the downside as we have several times before.