Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Sits Just Below 200 Day EMA

Natural gas markets have initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, but then turned around to show signs of strength again. However, we are sitting just below the 200 day EMA, which of course will attract quite a bit of attention. Nonetheless, I think we probably break above there and go looking towards the 50 day EMA. I think at this point, your job is to simply wait for signs of exhaustion that you can start selling into, as the market has a lot of negativity built into it.

NATGAS Video 23.03.21

At this point, I believe that the 50 day EMA sitting at the $2.71 level will probably cause quite a bit of resistance, and therefore I am looking for signs of exhaustion in that area. I certainly would not be a buyer of this market, even though I do believe it is going to bounce in the short term, mainly due to the fact that the seasonality of this market most certainly favors the downside in general. After all, one of the biggest drivers of natural gas is going to be heating, something that people in the northern hemisphere are not going to need as we continue to see temperatures heat up. With that being the case, I think that we are simply going to fade rallies as they occur, and eventually break down below the major support level that I see as being between $2.30 and $2.40 currently. Natural gas is oversupplied, and now that demand is going to fall, it is going to be very hard for this market to sustain any type of significant rally.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.