Natural Gas Price Forecast: New Long-term Trend High Established

Explosive Continuation Monday

Natural gas moved higher Monday to a fresh trend high and 36-month peak of $4.95, decisively clearing the March ceiling at $4.90 and triggering a major long-term continuation signal. Friday’s ascending triangle breakout was already textbook—resolving with closes at the highs of the day, week, and month—and Monday’s unrelenting strength shows buyers have fully seized control. One more daily close above $4.90 cements the breakout and shifts the larger trend firmly bullish.

Long-Term Fibonacci Roadmap

Confirmation opens a clear sequence of higher targets: the 61.8% retracement of the multi-year downswing at $5.28 leads the way, followed by a 127.2% Fibonacci extension at $5.52 and a separate 50% retracement of another long-term decline at $5.78. These levels now define the upside path for the developing bull market.

Classic Triangle & Momentum Context

The ascending triangle is a basic bullish continuation patterns, and its clean resolution after October’s higher swing low at $2.89 underscores improving underlying demand. Still, the velocity of the move raises legitimate short-term overextension concerns—can buyers maintain this intensity after eclipsing such a pivotal level? The market should provide clues shortly.

Moving Average Support Confirmed

Friday’s precise test and bullish explosion off the 10-day average, combined with the earlier successful defense of the 20-day line (the first retest since late-October reclamation), delivered exactly the reaction an intact uptrend should produce. These consecutive higher-average defenses are fresh, powerful evidence of strengthening momentum.

Critical Support Levels

The 10-day average now serves as primary near-term dynamic support, with the 20-day line the deeper gauge of trend health. A violation of the 10-day flags caution and targets the 20-day; a break there would place the entire advance from October lows in jeopardy and open risk of a sharper correction.

Outlook

Natural gas sits at a pivotal confirmation point—one solid daily close above $4.90 launches the next leg toward $5.28–$5.78. Moving average support remains the key barometer: hold the 10-day and 20-day on any pullback and the bull case stays dominant; failure invites deeper profit-taking. Momentum overwhelmingly favors buyers until proven otherwise.

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