Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rally Strengthens as Buyers Regain Control

Natural Gas Extends Gains After Wedge Breakout

Natural gas advanced on Thursday following a breakout from a falling bullish wedge pattern. The 20-Day moving average at $2.89 was reclaimed as prices reached a high of $3.00. A close above the average would confirm the breakout. Importantly, the market also pushed through the $2.97 interim swing high and briefly exceeded anchored VWAP resistance at $2.96. However, a close below these levels would temper the immediate bullish implications.

Signs of Strength at Mid-Channel

Price action also pierced the midpoint of a falling trend channel, another sign of underlying strength if maintained on a closing basis. A sustained move above the midpoint shifts focus to the channel’s upper boundary, a potential upside target. Even if the channel high is not reached, the attempt signals improving bullish momentum.

Pullback Levels and Short-Term Support

Given the wedge breakout, higher levels may be tested as resistance before the rally exhausts. Pullbacks are likely to attract buyers looking to position for extended upside potential. Key support levels to monitor include Wednesday’s low at $2.78 and Tuesday’s high at $2.74. Otherwise, wait and watch price action for clues.

Upside Targets and Weekly Confirmation

Wednesday’s close above $2.86 confirmed a recovery of the prior swing low, strengthening the bullish case. This supports the potential to reach measured wedge targets at $3.15 and $3.19. The weekly chart adds weight, as natural gas looks set to close the week with a bullish engulfing reversal. While not an immediate continuation signal, it suggests buying strength may dominate over the next couple of weeks.

Key Resistance at 50-Day Average

The 50-Day moving average at $3.20 aligns closely with the upper wedge target, marking it as a key resistance area. A sustained move above this level would strengthen the outlook for a larger recovery. Until then, traders will be watching closely to see if the short-term breakout develops into a broader trend shift.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.