Natural Gas Price Forecast: Reclaims 50-Day, Awaits Breakout Signal

Natural Gas Tests Key Resistance at $3.19

Natural gas advanced to a session high of $3.17 on Wednesday, narrowly missing the pivotal $3.19 swing high. That level has emerged as the key barrier to further upside. A decisive breakout above $3.19 would establish a higher swing high and open the door to a potential trend reversal. Importantly, such a move would also validate a rising ABCD pattern, where a 100% measured projection targets $3.45. That is in the area of the 200-Day moving average and the top line of a falling trend channel.

Sellers Push Back, Form Inverted Hammer

Following the $3.17 peak, sellers stepped in aggressively, driving price back below the session’s open. This left behind a bearish inverted hammer on the daily chart. The pattern suggests short-term weakness if confirmed by a decline through Wednesday’s low at $3.07. Until then, the setup remains tentative.

Reclaim of the 50-Day Average

Despite intraday weakness, natural gas managed to maintain its price action above the 50-Day moving average for the first time since late June. That recovery follows multiple failed attempts to reclaim the average in recent weeks, signaling potential improvement in underlying demand. If the 50-Day line holds as support, it could provide a foundation for further gains.

Defining the Battle Zone

Natural gas is currently caught between near-term resistance and key support. Overhead, the $3.19 swing high marks the level bulls must clear to trigger a breakout. On the downside, the 20-Day average near $2.96 and this week’s low at $2.87 provide critical support zones. How price behaves within this range should dictate the next directional move.

Bullish Breakout Signals from Tuesday

Tuesday’s bullish outside day strengthened the technical backdrop, as price closed above $3.12 and the 50-Day moving average for the first time since July 18. That breakout shifted short-term sentiment back toward the bulls. A follow-through move above $3.19 would add weight to that signal and potentially set the stage for a push toward the $3.45 measured move target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.