Natural Gas Price Forecast: Resistance at 20-Day Moving Average Halts Advance

Natural gas pulled back from resistance around the 20-Day MA on Wednesday and established a one-day bearish reversal with a lower daily high and lower low. The high of the day at $3.40 was followed by more aggressive selling, which led to a low for the day at $3.26. A daily close below that level would confirm the breakdown below Tuesday’s low of $3.31. Nonetheless, a drop below today’s low will signal a likely continuation of the pullback.

Possible Weekly Support Zone

There is a recent weekly high and low at $3.23 to $3.19 where there could be signs of support. But if that fails as support natural gas may be heading for a possible test of the 200-Day MA, now at $3.09. Also, there is this week’s low at $3.05. Since a drop below that level after this week would indicate a failure of the weekly bullish reversal that was established this week, it seems unlikely. Therefore, the current expectation would be for support to be found at the 200-Day line or above it if a deeper pullback follows today.

Bottom Likely Established

Nevertheless, the are reasons to believe that a bottom for the bearish correction was established last week at $2.86. That was right at support identified by the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) that began from the long-term trend low established in February 2024. Despite the one-day pullback, a decisive advance above today’s high would indicate a possible bullish continuation before a deeper pullback. Strength would be confirmed on a rally above Tuesday’s high of $3.46. Since the 20-Day MA is at today’s high of $3.40, it would be reclaimed on a breakout above today’s high.

Upper Resistance Zone at $3.61 to $3.64

Higher initial targets look to start around $3.61 to $3.64. The upper end of the range was the peak in 2023 and the top of a large symmetrical triangle formation that subsequently formed. However, more significant price levels are around the AVWAP level from the recent trend high on March 10 around $3.76 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.82. The advance that began this week is a counter-trend rally within a downtrend pattern and therefore rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone that presents a range of potential selling pressure.

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