Natural Gas Price Forecast: Seeks Bottom as Key Resistance Levels Loom

Natural gas continued to work to establish a sustainable retracement bottom on Tuesday as it dropped below Monday’s low of $3.23 to a low of $3.17 before bouncing. Roughly half of yesterday’s gap was filled during the decline and the day will end with a lower daily high and lower low. This might leave the door open to possibly filling the gap completely, which would happen with a decline to $3.12. A drop below today’s low would increase the chance of filling the gap.

Weak Price Action Tuesday

Nonetheless, Monday’s bullish action showed strength, but the day ended weak. Natural gas closed below the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The current bounce off support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement last week should have more upside to go. An advance above today’s high of $3.35 would provide the next sign of strength, followed by Monday’s high at $3.41.

First, it will have to challenge a potential resistance zone from $3.51 to $3.52, consisting of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-Day MA, respectively. Certainly, it looks likely that price zone will be tested as resistance. And be aware there is a downtrend line near to the 50-Day line. It can be used to help gauge strength or weakness.

50-Day MA is Key

The price area around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.69, would be the next higher potential resistance zone. But the 50-Day line generally has greater significance for the bull trend. In the bigger picture, following a bullish breakout it is common to eventually see a bearish correction to test that prior resistance area and see if it now represents support. And there are different degrees of retracement, which can provide clues as to strength or weakness.

Natural gas broke out of large symmetrical triangle pattern November 20 last year and that led to a rally to a peak of $4.37. The breakout level was $3.02 and last week’s swing low was $2.99. Support was seen in the around confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.03, a rising trendline, and a key prior resistance level.

Further Clarity by Mid-February

Although trendlines generally don’t provide good signals by themselves, they can assist the analysis. Notice that a downtrend line and uptrend line are converging on February 18. This means that one of those lines is broken before then and that could provide further clarity.

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