Natural Gas Price Forecast: Sellers Press Toward 200-Day Support at $3.57

Bearish Continuation Confirms Seller Control

The bearish correction in the price of natural gas further confirmed that sellers are in charge, as a new retracement low of $3.68 was reached on Wednesday. A decisive bearish red candle established a lower daily high and lower low and triggered a bearish inverted hammer pattern from Tuesday. Tuesday’s earlier advance found resistance near the 10-day average, which led to a weak closing in the lower third of the day’s range. Today’s resolution clearly shows a continuation of the falling trend and a failure of the bulls to support rising prices.

200-Day Average Emerges as Key Support Zone

A continuation of the bearish trend will be confirmed by a daily close below the prior retracement low of $3.79. Natural gas looks set to test support near the 200-day moving average at a minimum. It is currently as $3.57 and supported by pivot highs from October.

This is the first approach to the 200-day line as support since it was reclaimed in late October, which makes it a potentially high probability support zone. If it is undercut, then the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is a little lower at $3.45. There is also a short-term uptrend line that may add context, marking a similar potential support zone.

Decline Speed Signals Further Downside Risk

Natural gas has fallen hard since peaking at $5.50. As of Wednesday’s low, it was down by $1.80 or 32.8% in only 17 days. What is interesting is the speed of the decline, rather than the magnitude. Prior bearish downswings since the 2024 bottom on a percentage basis have ranged from -31.6% to -41.5%. Based on that, further downside for natural gas looks likely and a lower measured move target at $3.26 becomes a possibility. A falling ABCD pattern on the chart shows the bearish measured move and an initial 78.6% harmonic projected target.

78.6% Retracement Failure Opens Lower Targets

This lower target is only indicated if the 78.6% retracement at $3.45 fails as support. The price of natural gas would have declined by approximately 40.8% as of the 78.6% projection, which is more closely aligned with the larger decline since the 2024 bottom. Specifically, the bearish correction following the new trend high at $4.90 in March 2025 bottomed after a 41.5% collapse. That was a correction from a new trend high, as is the current decline.

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