Natural Gas Price Forecast: Selling Pressure Stalls Near Key Support

Bearish Momentum Slows Near Trend Lows

Downward pressure in the price of natural gas remained on Friday, with a slightly higher daily low of $3.02 showing another test of support near Thursday’s low. Thursday’s low and the low for the bear trend is $3.01. Early-session strength on Friday led to a high of $2.23 for the day before sellers took control.

Nonetheless, a higher daily high and low were established with natural gas set to end the week at a similar daily closing price as the prior two days, reflecting the stall in bearish momentum. A weekly close below last week’s low of $3.13, will confirm the continuation of the bear trend on that timeframe and showing continued downward pressure on the price of natural gas.

Long-Term Trendline Continues to Attract Support

Support for the current decline has been seen near a long-term uptrend line for the second day in a row, with a higher daily high and low established. Dynamic resistance for the short-term downtrend was confirmed this week at that 10-day average with the highs for both Tuesday and Wednesday hitting resistance near the 10-day line. This resulted in a lower swing high.

Falling 10-Day Average Caps Short-Term Rallies

The 10-day average is now at $3.31 and falling. If it is touched following an advance above Friday’s high, resistance is anticipated. That should lead to further selling as support near the trendline is further tested. If the trendline is broken and then weakness confirmed with a drop below $3.01, the 88.6% retracement level at $2.95 is the next lower target. It is joined by a 100% projected measured move target (ABCD) and a monthly low from October at $2.89.

Lower Fibonacci and Measured-Move Targets Remain in Focus

There is a possibility that the monthly low is undercut slightly before buyers move in aggressively and then quickly recover the monthly low. Natural gas has fallen by as much as $2.49 or 45.3% from the November peak. That puts the bearish correction close to the maximum decline seen since the 2024 bottom on a percentage basis. It occurred following the March 2025 peak of $4.90. The price of natural gas fell by 46.5% until a bottom was hit at $2.62.

It is interesting to note that a similar percentage decline will be established for the current correction slightly above the $2.89 monthly low, around $2.94. This suggests that the 88.6% retracement zone has a solid chance of seeing strong support that leads to a bullish reversal.

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