Natural Gas Price Forecast: Support Holds Firm, but Bulls Need a Spark

Natural gas is locked in a battle at a critical support zone, anchored by a long-term trend line and an anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) indicator around $2.96 – $2.90. This area has repeatedly repelled selling pressure, acting as a price floor. Yet, Friday’s weak performance leaves bulls searching for confirmation of a potential reversal.

Friday’s Price Action Lacks Conviction

On Friday, natural gas oscillated between a low of $2.96 and a high of $3.11, but weakness dominated, with prices likely closing near the day’s lows. This sets up a weekly close near last week’s low of $2.90, signaling persistent bearish pressure. Early-week bullish hints faded, and the close near weekly lows offers little comfort to bulls, though the resilient support zone suggests a bottom may be near.

Key Levels to Watch

The $2.90 level, this week’s low, is critical near-term support. A break below could signal a failure of the broader support zone, undermining the AVWAP and trend line area. On the upside, a rally above Friday’s high of $3.11 signals initial strength, but a sustained move above $3.15 is required to confirm a bullish reversal. Such a break could target $3.19, shifting momentum to the bulls. The 20-day moving average at $3.20 looms as a key resistance, potentially capping gains or serving as a breakout catalyst.

Trading Outlook

Traders should closely monitor the $2.90–$2.96 support zone. Holding this area keeps bullish hopes alive, but a drop below $2.90 warns of deeper declines, offering lower prices for aggressive traders. For bulls, a decisive break above $3.15 signals further bullish price action, with $3.19 as the next target. Patience is critical—swing traders should wait for confirmation above $3.15, while short-term traders might fade breakdowns below support.

With natural gas at this inflection point, the next few sessions may determine if support holds or gives way to further downside. The same AVWAP line identified support twice during prior bearish corrections. Each time it was followed by a rally. This makes the area around the AVWAP likely to see strong

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