Natural Gas Price Forecast: Wedge Breakdown + Weekly Reversal Points to 50-Day

Wednesday’s Accelerated Decline

Sellers remained firmly in charge Wednesday, establishing a new pullback low of $4.46 positioned right near the initial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the explosive rally from October. This move produced yet another lower daily high and lower low, clearly continuing the short-term bear trend and offering further concrete signs of weakening across the structure.

Classic Support-to-Resistance Flip

The 20-day average at $4.68—decisively broken on Tuesday—was tested and rejected as resistance Wednesday with the session high of $4.70, delivering textbook bearish behavior where prior dynamic support transforms into overhead supply. Yesterday’s daily close below that average locked in the breakdown, immediately shifting focus to the 50-day average as the next prominent dynamic support line on the downside path.

Ascending Wedge Breakdown Adds Conviction

Compounding the bearish case, the lower boundary line of the ascending wedge pattern was violated as well, providing additional technical confirmation for the corrective thrust. Although a brief bounce could materialize before natural gas presses lower, the overall trajectory suggests it will eventually unfold that way after the hard sell-off that followed last week’s $5.50 high.

10-Day Average Role in the Reversal

That $5.50 peak looks to have completed the short-term trend for now, with the decisive selling immediately after and the failure of a key trend indicator like the 20-day average tipping the scales heavily toward bears. Any potential bounce in the near term may encounter resistance at higher price levels, including not just the 20-day average but also the 10-day line at $4.87. Monday’s low found support right around that average, only for Tuesday’s high to meet it as resistance, again illustrating how prior dynamic support is now showing as resistance and providing even further evidence for the bears.

Weekly Reversal Takes Shape

Further bearish alignment appears on the weekly chart, where a one-week reversal has already triggered this week and there is a good chance the close will confirm the breakdown below last week’s low of $4.76. The weekly trend has held strong since the October higher swing low at $2.89, marking seven straight weeks up. This represents the first decisive breakdown of a prior week’s low since then, a development that underscores the shift in sentiment.

Channel Dynamics Reveal Overextension

The relationship to a couple of rising trend channels provides further indications that the price of natural gas got severely overextended and was due for this bearish correction. Bullish momentum had accelerated sharply following a reclaim of the 200-day average, culminating in natural gas breaking out of a trend channel where the top channel line connects directly to the early-October swing high at $3.59. Then, on the new high day last week, there was a sharp breakout above the top channel line (200%) of the second channel—but that has proven to be a false breakout, as the swift reversal now validates.

Outlook

Natural gas continues to exhibit clear bearish control with the 20-day breakdown, wedge violation, and emerging weekly reversal all pointing to further downside toward the 50-day average. While a bounce testing the 10-day or 20-day as resistance fits the pattern, the overextended advance demands correction until excess unwinds—defense at the 50-day would signal possible stabilization, but momentum stays firmly with sellers for now.

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