Natural Gas Price Forecast: What’s Next for Investors?

Natural Gas Forecast Video for 12.02.24 by Bruce Powers

Natural gas continued its descent on Friday as it triggered a new trend low on a decline below 1.87. It looks to be on its way to the first potential support zone around 1.80. Today’s low at the time of this writing was 1.82. As of today’s low, the price of natural gas was down 1.83 or 50.0% from the October peak of 3.64. This week’s close is likely to end with the price of natural gas in a weak position, near the lows of the week’s range. Although the 1.80 area is the next lower target zone, given the breakdown below long-term support of 1.95 and weakness into the close, it would not be surprising to see natural gas fall below 1.80.

If 1.80 Support Fails, Next Lower Level is 1.61

If 1.80 is exceeded to the downside the next lower level is over 10% lower at 1.61. The March 2016 swing low found support there and it was followed by a sharp rally. Further identifying the 1.61 price area is the falling ABCD pattern. An initial target of 1.94 was exceeded on Wednesday. A second lower target extends the CD leg of the decline by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio to arrive at 1.60. Since two indicators are identifying the same price area, it deserves to be watched if natural gas does continue to sell off.

Rallies Likely to See Resistance Around Prior Lows Starting at 1.95

If there are signs of support around 1.80 and it leads to a bullish reversal, a rise to test resistance around the prior trend lows of 1.95 and 1.97 is likely at a minimum. An advance above this week’s high of 2.13 would be needed before turning the short-term outlook bullish. Therefore, a bounce from the 1.80 region would be expected to encounter resistance somewhere within the price structure of the down trend.

Natural gas is accelerating its decline and there are no signs of it slowing down yet. It fell below the prior long-term trend low of 2.13 this week with little hesitation. The current decline follows a failed attempt to confirm a bullish reversal and sustain an uptrend above the 200-Day MA (blue) and the long-term downtrend line. Fast moves often come from failed patterns. We are starting to see the results of that in natural gas.

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