Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Cooler 7 – 10 Day Forecast Underpinning Prices

After forming an elongated support base, natural gas futures surged on Tuesday amid forecasts calling for colder temperatures over the next seven-to-10 days.

Driving prices higher early in the session was overnight data from the American Global Forecast System (GFS) which showed added heating demand during the April 20 – 22 time frame, while the European model was milder trending for April 20-26 by showing less cold over the Great Lakes and Northeast, according to NatGasWeather.

On Tuesday, May natural gas futures settled at $2.619, up $0.058 or +2.26%.

More Details from NatGasWeather

“There’s still several cold shots to sweep across the country before then for strong national demand” this week through April 20 as weather systems are expected to bring low temperatures ranging from the 20s to lower 40s, the firm said and Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported.

Projected temperatures from both the American and European models are likely “cold enough to be considered bullish” through April 22, but both models favor milder conditions April 24-27 that would result in light natural gas demand, according to NatGasWeather.

“Bull gained momentum in recent sessions by rallying prices off $2.50,” the firm said. “However, bulls likely don’t feel completely in controls with prices only 4-5 cents up from $2.50.” Colder temperatures over the next nine days and strong liquefied natural gas feed gas volumes are providing bullish support for prices, according to NatGasWeather.

“To the bearish side, production has increased several Bcf/d over the past few months, deficits are set to flip back to surpluses” following this week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report “and weather patterns April 24-27 aren’t hot or cold enough,” the firm said.

Short-Term Outlook

The main trend is down according to the daily trend indicator. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $2.688. A move through $2.453 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is $2.352 to $3.060. The market is currently testing its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $2.622 to $2.706. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $3.060 to $2.453. If the main trend changes to up then look for a rally into its retracement zone at $2.757 to $2.828.

A failure at $2.622 could lead to another pullback into the support zone with the first support pivot coming in at $2.571. This is followed by the main bottom at $2.453.

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