Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Latest Forecasts Offer Little Comfort for Bulls

The market is bearish because, “Seasonal weather systems will not be cold enough this year as they need to be much colder than normal to overcome very strong production,” NatGasWeather said.
James Hyerczyk
Natural Gas

Natural gas futures are edging lower on Tuesday after a sell-off at the start of the week was fueled by forecasts for more seasonal weather, lowering demand expectations into early December. According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), seasonal temperatures also drove spot market prices lower for most of the country, although big gains in California proved a notable exception; NGI’s Spot Gas National Average fell 10.5 cents to $2.415.

At 13:05 GMT, January natural gas futures are trading $2.607, down 0.023 or -0.84%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for November 19 to November 25, “Three separate weather systems will impact the northern US today but none very cold. One will exit the Northeast, a second will track across the Great Lakes, and a third will push into the West. While slightly cool, these systems will still have highs of upper 30s to 50s. The rest of the US will be mild to warm with highs of 60s & 70s, warmest over Texas as high pressure sets up over the central US, then shifts over the South and East Wednesday through Friday. A fresh cold shot will push into the central US Thursday, then into the East Friday through Saturday with lows of 20s to 30s. Overall, light national demand this week, increasing slightly this weekend on Eastern US cooling. Overall, national demand will be moderate through Friday, then high this coming weekend.”

Mid-Term Weather Outlook

“The Global Forecast System (GFS) data advertised a slightly warmer outlook for early next week and a “quite seasonal pattern” for November 29 to December 2; shots of cooler – but not particularly cold – temperatures were expected for northern portions of the country during this period,” according to NatGasWeather.

“Data later Monday from the European Model came in ‘much milder trending’ for next week and for early December dropping another 9 heating degree days (HDD) from the outlook after losing 8 HDDs overnight,” the forecaster said.

Early Look at This Week’s EIA Report

The Desk’s Early View storage survey Friday showed 20 respondents predicting a median 89 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended November 15, with expectations ranging from a withdrawal of 65 Bcf up to a 102 Bcf pull.

Daily Forecast

The market is bearish because, “Seasonal weather systems will not be cold enough this year as they need to be much colder than normal to overcome very strong production,” NatGasWeather said.

Furthermore, “With no significant cold anomalies in the forecast, we expect the year/year storage surplus to grow by 70 Bcf over the next three weeks, pushing natural gas prices significantly lower,” according to EBW Analytics Group.

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.