Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Mid-Day Weather Data Should Set the Tone

Natural gas futures are trading lower on Monday after an early attempt to breakout to the upside failed to attract enough buyers to extend the rally. The minor trend changed to up early in the session when buyers took out the previous minor top at $2.401, but the rally stopped at $2.413.

At 13:12 GMT, August natural gas futures settled at $2.375, down 0.006 or -0.25%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for June 17 to June 23, “A messy pattern across the country this week with numerous weak weather systems/fronts producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. It will be comfortable with 70s and 80s across most of the northern and interior US, while very warm to hot around the periphery with 80s to 100s across the West and 80s to lower 90s across Texas, the South, and Southeast. It will be hot with 90s up the Atlantic Seaboard Monday, then cooling several degrees mid-week. Next week will bring strengthening high pressure across the South & East with 80s and 90s. Overall, demand will be moderate to low.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 102 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week-ending June 7. Traders were looking for a reading of 110 Bcf.

Total stocks now stand at 2.088 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), up 189 Bcf from a year ago, but 230 Bcf below the five-year average, the government report showed.

Daily Forecast

The new short-term range is $2.305 to $2.413. Its 50% level or pivot at $2.359 is controlling the direction of the market today. The price action suggests that a support base is forming. Prices aren’t likely to move much out of this range until traders get the next weather forecast.

NatGasWeather is saying, “Still notable differences between the GFS and European models for the next two weeks. Most importantly, the GFS remained hotter than the European model next weekend through the last week of June, seeing a stronger ridge over the southern 2/3 of the US. The European model also builds a hot ridge, just not quite as quickly.”

“Today’s mid-day data will be of interest to see if the GFS is too hot or the European model too cool.”