Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – New Forecast Calling for Cold to Extend Beyond March 15

Natural gas prices are trading higher on Tuesday amid new weather reports that showed better potential for colder temperatures to develop across key demand areas in the United States March 16-20. Prior to this news, traders were expressing concerns over the March 11-15 time period so this is fresh news.

At 12:13 GMT, April natural gas is trading $2.878, up $0.021 or +0.74%.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for March 5-11, “Frigid cold will cover much of the central, northern and eastern U.S. this week with lows of -20s to 20s, coldest over the northern central US. It will also be cold over Texas and portions of the southern US with lows of teens to 30s, aiding very strong national demand. The West remains cool and unsettled as weather systems bring rain and snow. Milder temperatures will return across the southern and eastern US this weekend into early next week with easing demand. Overall, national demand will be high-very high this week, then easing this weekend.

Daily Forecast

Today’s early strength shows that bullish speculators and weak shorts are responding to a new forecast calling for the cold trend to continue beyond mid-month.

“After this week there will be a mix of cold shots and milder breaks” making for a “relatively neutral pattern” starting Saturday March 9 and continuing through March 15, NatGasWeather said. “By the third week of March, both the American and European models continue to favor colder than normal conditions returning across much of the country to potentially return demand to stronger than normal levels.”

The key level to watch on the chart the rest of the week is $2.871. Trader reaction to this level will control the direction of the market.

Look for the upside bias to continue on a sustained move over $2.871. If this creates enough upside momentum, we could see a drive into the main top at $2.932. Taking out this level will change the trend to up on the weekly chart.

A downside bias is likely to develop on a sustained move under $2.871. If this move draws enough selling pressure then look for a move into $2.812. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.