Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Trader Reaction to $2.807 Pivot Will Determine Direction

Natural gas futures continued to grind higher on Wednesday, taking out last week’s high early in the session. However, prices broke when the buying dried up and the market finished lower.

On Wednesday, June Natural Gas futures settled at $2.807, down 0.006 or -0.21%.

The price action suggests general nervousness and uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s expiration of the May futures contract and the latest weekly storage data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Today’s report is expected to show another rare April drawdown, further delaying the start of this year’s injection season.

Forecast

Natural gas prices are edging higher early Thursday. At 0748 GMT, June Natural Gas futures are trading at $2.815, up $0.008 or +0.29%, on low volume.

According to a survey of traders and analysts, today’s EIA report, due to be released at 1430 GMT, is expected to show a 12 Bcf withdrawal for the week-ending April 20. Guesses range from 9 Bcf to 22 Bcf. Last year, 71 Bcf was injected, while the five-year average is a build of 60 Bcf.

We’re looking for volatility because of the rare combination of an EIA report and a contract expiration. However, we have no confidence in the direction of the market.

If the EIA data is exactly as expected then the May contract may expire without a whimper.

A bullish miss could trigger a strong rally into expiration. However, the move may not last over the near-term unless there is more weather-driven demand in the forecast.

A bearish miss could trigger a steep break,

Looking at the daily chart, this year’s range is $2.975 to $2.638. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone comes in at $2.807 to $2.847 respectively.

We’re going to call the market bullish on a sustained move over the 50% level at $2.807 and bearish on a sustained move under it.