Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Weakens Under $2.166, Strengthens Over $2.206

Natural gas futures finished lower on Monday after an early session attempt to rally failed to draw enough buyers to sustain the move. Helping to stabilize the market over the past five sessions was a weather report showing a potential blast of chilly air moving into the Midwest and Northeast by the middle of next week. However, new models show the cold front is weak and not likely to last. The news may have capped gains.

On Monday, February natural gas settled at $2.186, down $0.045 or -2.02%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $2.167 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $2.351.

The minor trend is also down. The minor trend will change to up on a trade through 2.290. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is $2.351 to $2.167. Its 50% level or pivot at $2.259 is resistance. It’s also controlling the short-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $2.686 to $2.167. Its retracement zone at $2.427 to $2.488 is the next potential upside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $2.189, the direction of the February natural gas market the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of downtrending Gann Angles at $2.166 and $2.206.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $2.166 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the selling pressure is strong enough, we could see an acceleration to the downside.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $2.206 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the minor pivot at $2.259. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

A sustained move over the pivot at $2.259 could lead to a test of $2.290. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to up and indicate a shift in momentum to the upside.

If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for aggressive counter-trend traders to try to trigger buy stops over $2.325 and $2.351.

Taking out $2.351 will change the main trend to up and could trigger a further extension into the retracement zone at $2.427 to $2.488.