Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Dance Around 200 Day EMA

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has gone back and forth during the early hours here on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy trading. The 200 day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, and we did in fact touch it. So, the question now is whether or not we are going to continue to see that we offer support and over the last couple of days it basically has.

With that being said, I think you are looking at a market that is probably going to continue to be a bit choppy and that makes a certain amount of sense because we have seen so much volatility in the past couple of months, like why would it change now? But I also recognize that you have to look at this through the prism of the seasonality of the market, so given enough time, I fully anticipate that we have a market that will be looking perhaps for some type of possible move that they can really jump onto. I think if we get a nice rally from here, then we will more likely than not see some type of selling pressure near the 50 day EMA, possibly even the $3.83 level. With this, I like the idea of fading rallies that show signs of exhaustion, as I’ve been saying for a while now.

And I do recognize that this is a market that, given enough time, probably needs to make bigger decisions. If we can break down below the hammer from the previous session on Tuesday, then I think it opens up a move down to the $3 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure that would attract a lot of attention. I have no interest in buying natural gas, although I freely admit it looks like it probably bounces over the next day or two.

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