Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Drop

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has fallen a bit during the early hours here on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy and negative behavior. That being said, this is the time of year when natural gas normally shines. And let’s be honest here, we’re pulling back from a pretty extended rally. So, my job as a trader at this point is to determine whether or not the trend has changed. I don’t think it has. So, we can eliminate that concern and then determine where the fair value is.

Seasonal Demand and Market Drivers

Well, I have found over the years, and this is going to be especially true in this chaotic market, that you’re better off letting the market tell you where the value is. So, I’m waiting for a bounce that I can trade on the right-hand side of the V. It’s really that simple. This time of year, demand from places like Cleveland, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New York all pick up, and it does drive the price of natural gas higher. I think part of what we’ve seen this year, besides the fact that it’s actually a real winter for once, is that there is a lot of hype around AI data center demand. And while I think that’s probably a real thing, I also think that’s a thing in the future. So, we’ll just have to wait and see.

I am looking for a bounce. I am looking forward to buying it. I don’t have any interest in shorting it. Just look at the last month or so, you would have gotten crushed. So, I don’t see any reason to swim upstream as it were. And I’ll be waiting for a bounce to take advantage of it.

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