Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Grind Back and Forth

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

Natural gas fell slightly during the early hours here on Thursday, but keep in mind it’s Thanksgiving in the United States and therefore, the volume will be anemic at best. And of course, we will be closed for a huge portion of the session.

Right now, it looks like we are in consolidation still, and I think that probably remains the case as traders have seen this market jump straight up in the air. Now it needs to work off some of that excess froth. We just rolled over into the January contract, and that, of course, is a time of year that’s typically very bullish for natural gas. So I’m not even looking to short this under any circumstances.

Seasonal Strength and Key Levels

If natural gas does in fact get a bit of a pullback, and it could with warmer-than-anticipated weather, then we have a situation where we have to be looking for buying opportunities on a bounce. I would love to see this market drop to the $4 level, but we’ll have to wait and see whether or not that even gets offered. It’s worth noting that the 50-day EMA is now approaching the $4 level as well. So that gives it even more credence.

Alternatively, we could just go back and forth. And if we do, then I look at the $4.25 level as an area where we start to see buyers come back in and pick things up. Regardless, the plan for me is to wait for some type of pullback to offer value, watch it bounce, and then get on the right-hand side of the V pattern that will show up on the chart. As far as where we can go from here, we probably try to get to $5 sooner or later, but we’ll need some type of cold snap or colder weather forecasted at least to get to that area. This is a buy-only market this time of year. I’m sticking to that one.

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