Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Grind Higher Waiting for Storage Numbers

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market has shown itself to be a little bit positive in the early hours of Thursday, but we do have a couple of things to keep in the back of our mind before we get too excited. The first thing, of course, is that we have the natural gas storage numbers coming out in a little while. And at this point in time, it’s likely that we’ll move the market quite drastically.

Some of what you may see will be a factor of short covering. And some of it, of course, is just simply the factor that both sides will want to be out of the market when that all important announcement comes out. From a technical analysis standpoint, we are sitting right at the 50 day EMA and sitting about the $3 level, which is a good sign. But we do have a lot of noise all the way to about $3.16. So, we are right in the middle of that noise. By the time we get our daily candlestick on Thursday, we may have a bit more information to work with.

If we drop back below the $3 level, then I’m more likely than not going to be shorting this market. While natural gas will climb here as we head into the colder months, right now we are still trading September, so that is something to keep in the back of your mind. September isn’t necessarily a strong month for natural gas. Eventually, I think we will get one more push lower and then that might be the end of the summer selling season. We’ll just have to wait and see. If we get hot weather in the United States, that could help as well because electricity will be needed for air conditioning. But as things stand right now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be that big of a deal. I still look at this very, very suspiciously as a short-term rally that more likely than not will offer a selling opportunity.

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