Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Continues to Test $3

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets have gapped a little bit lower during the early hours here on Thursday, as we continue to test the $3 level. This is a market that continues to be very negative in general, which quite frankly, doesn’t surprise me, considering that this type of action around a large, round, psychologically significant figure will almost certainly attract the options traders and, of course, people wanting to get in and out of the market. That being said, I believe at this point in time, you’ve got a situation where if we do break down below the $3 level, then we will probably test the $2.80 level. And then after that, we really could fall apart.

Regardless, I think this is a market that continues to see a lot of pressures due to the lack of demand this time of year, and of course, the fact that electricity production isn’t necessarily spiking based on heat in the United States. So, all things being equal, and the fact that natural gas is so abundant, it’s not overly surprising that we find ourselves struggling to continue to go higher from a longer term standpoint. The 50 day EMA is getting ready to break down below the 200 day EMA, kicking off the so-called death cross. Even if we do rally from here, the previous uptrend line should cause resistance before we get to those moving averages. So, I continue to look for signs of exhaustion after short-term rallies to fade and short for short timeframe trades.

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