Natural Gas Price Outlook – Natural Gas Looks Heavy

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas market did try to rally a bit after opening slightly lower than the close from the Wednesday session, but at this point in time you can see that we have a lot of hesitation and I think that hesitation is going to continue to play out all the way to at least the three $3.00. The $3.00 level of course is large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we’ve seen a lot of action previously. We have also the 50 day EMA dropping down from there, trying to get to the 50 day EMA, offering a little bit more of a barrier. Keep in mind that this time of year is pretty quiet for natural gas as far as demand is concerned, but we are trying to rally and that needs to be noticed.

Furthermore, we just jumped over into the September contract, which will be priced a little higher than August under normal circumstances, because there’s at least some chance of at the end of the month it might be cold enough to have heat turned back on in the US. It’ll be hit or miss. The later in the year we get, as far as futures contracts are concerned, the higher the price will go. So that is something that’s worth noting.

But ultimately, I think you’re still in the same situation where you are fading rallies at the first signs of exhaustion in a market that quite frankly, just isn’t that strong. So, I’m looking for a long wick that I can start shorting and it’s possible that we could go looking to the $2.50 level, an area that could very well end up being the seasonal bottom.

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