Natural Gas Price Prediction – Gas Prices Whipsaw and Settle Higher on Hurricane Fears

Natural gas prices surged higher on Tuesday but settled off the highs of the trading session. Traders are eyeing Hurricane Michael which is now a category 3, storm headed for the Florida Panhandle in the Gulf of Mexico.  If the storm shifts to the west, there are several infrastructure installations that it will hit.  For now, prices are easing as traders believe the storm will remain on its current trajectory and miss most of the natural gas production installations.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices broke out above trend line resistance and held that level Tuesday which is seen near 3.25. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 3.14.  Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. The RSI (relative strength index) moved sideways which reflects consolidation. The current reading of 68, is on the upper end of the neutral range.

Injections Rose in the Latest Week

The EIA reported that net injections are higher than the five-year average. Net injections into storage totaled 98 Bcf for the week ending September 28, compared with the five-year average net injections of 84 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 44 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks totaled 2,866 Bcf, which is 607 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 636 Bcf lower than last year at this time.

LNG Exports Declined

U.S. liquefied natural gas exports decrease week over week. Four LNG vessels, all from the Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal, with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 14.2 Bcf departed the United States from September 27 through October 3. One tanker was loading at Sabine Pass on Wednesday. No LNG vessels departed from Cove Point last week because the facility is undergoing scheduled maintenance. The facility has not received any natural gas feedstock pipeline deliveries since September 21.