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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Oversold Prices are Poised for a Rebound

David Becker
Natural gas daily chart, July 16, 2018

Natural gas prices continued to trend lower ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Consensus for Thursday’s report is a build of 62 Bcf with a range of 54 Bcf to 72 Bcf. Natural gas inventories are below the 5-year average and close to the lower end of the 5-year average range. The trajectory of builds in stockpiles is flat. Prices are trending lower due to cooler than normal weather which is forecast to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The United States continues to build toward increasing natural gas exports, but the lack of a NAFTA agreement is hurting exports.

Technicals

Prices dropped 0.44% on Wednesday and are targeting trend line support that comes in near 2.67. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.79. Short term prices are oversold and could rebound into the inventory number. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 3, well below the oversold trigger level of 20, which could foreshadow a correction.  The fast stochastic also generated a crossover buy signal, which points to accelerating positive momentum. The MACD histogram is beginning to edge higher which points to consolidation.

NAFTA Agreements Continue to Linger

Canada’s PM Trudeau said we’re going to be able to get a good NAFTA deal, in comments to reporters. The PM said we “know we are going to be able to get a good trade deal that is beneficial to Canada, to Mexico and to the United States and we are going to do it by staying strong and united, and being there for each other when we are hitting challenges, so thank you to Canadians.” The U.S, of course, has not seemed interested in joining a trilateral friendship circle on trade resulting in ongoing negotiations/tariffs between the U.S. and Canada/Mexico and the U.S. and China.

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