Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate Ahead of EIA Numbers

Natural gas prices moved higher on Wednesday forming an inside day ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for natural gas inventories to increase by 93 Bcd. This compares to a 104 Bcf build in natural gas inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration last week. There is one disturbance near the Gulf of Mexico that NOAA gives a 10% chance at becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours.  The weather is expected to remain well below normal for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded forming an inside day which is a lower high and a higher low which is a sign of indecision. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.20.  Prices are hovering above short term support near the 10-day moving average at 2.27. Additional resistance is seen near the October highs at 2.38. Short term momentum has is whipsawing and points to consolidation. Medium-term momentum is flat as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is moving sideways. The MACD histogram is printing near the zero-index level with a flat trajectory that points to consolidation.

Strong LNG Growth Could Come With a Trade Agreement

Rapid growth in China’s natural gas consumption has outpaced growth in its domestic natural gas production in recent years, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration. China’s natural gas imports, both by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas accounted for nearly half of China’s natural gas supply in 2018, an increase from 15% in 2010.