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Natural gas prices moved lower on Friday but held support near the former breakout level. The weather is expected to moderate over the next 8-14 days after becoming much colder than normal during the next 6-10 days.  There is one disturbance in the Caribbean that is entering the Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance of turning into a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours. US consumption of natural gas is expected to decline in 2020 according to the EIA.

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Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower but held support near the breakout level at 2.95. Resistance is seen near the October highs at 3.07. Momentum is flat to negative as the RSI is heading lower unable to break out to new highs. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in positive territory with a flat trajectory that points to consolidation.

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EIA Expects Consumption to Decline

EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 83.7 billion cubic feet per day in 2020, down 1.8% from 2019. The decline in total U.S. consumption reflects less heating demand in early 2020, contributing to residential and commercial demand in 2020 averaging 13.1 Bcf/d. EIA forecasts industrial consumption will average 22.3 Bcf/d in 2020, down 0.8 Bcf/d from 2019 as a result of reduced manufacturing activity. EIA expects total U.S. natural gas consumption will average 78.7 Bcf/d in 2021, a 5.9% decline from 2020. The expected decline in 2021 is the result of rising natural gas prices that will reduce demand for natural gas in the electric power sector.

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