Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Decline and are Poised to Test Lower Levels

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday, falling more than 4%. Potential reclosures of states throughout the US is weighing on potential electricity demand. There is currently no tropical activity in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal over the next 2-weeks, putting some upward pressure on natural gas prices. US LNG exports declined in the latest week according to the EIA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday Declining more than 4% and poised to test target support levels. Support is seen near the March and April lows at 1.51. Resistance is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1.73. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurred as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

US LNG Exports Decline

The EIA reports that US LNG exports decrease week over week. Four liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 15 Bcf departed the United States between July 9 and July 15, 2020, according to shipping data provided by the EIA. This level is the lowest reported U.S. LNG export volume since December 8, 2016, when Sabine Pass LNG was the only U.S. LNG export facility and had two trains in operation.