Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices continued to trend lower despite warmer than normal weather that is forecast to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days. It also appears that the weather will be unseasonably hot over the next week to 10-days which should boost cooling demand over the next 2-weeks. Despite the forecast for warmer weather as inventories that continue to grow slower than expected, prices are facing headwinds. The EIA will release its next inventory report on Friday July 6, one day late due to the July 4 holiday. Prices dropped through support which is now resistance near the 50-day moving average at 2.87. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line at 2.67. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD index (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

The Weather is Warmer than Normal

Temperatures are in the higher than normal range for the storage week. Temperatures in the Lower 48 states averaged 75 degrees Fahrenheit 4°F higher than normal and the same as last year at this time. Temperatures were 3°F higher than the level reported for the previous week.

Reported net injections into storage are lower than the median of the range of analysts

Reported net injections into storage are lower than the median of the range of analysts’ expectations. According to the EIA survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change from working natural gas storage ranged from net injections of 58 Bcf to 77 Bcf, with a median estimate of 71 Bcf.