Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rally as Momentum Turns Higher

The MACD generates a crossover buy signal
David Becker
Natural gas daily chart, August 13, 2019

Natural gas prices moved higher on Tuesday, recapturing resistance which was former support. There are now tropical cyclones expected in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico over the next 48-hours according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal over the next 8-14 and 6-10 days according to NOAA. Inventories of natural gas are expected to increase by 55 BCF when the EIA reported inventories according to Estimize.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices recaptured former resistance which is now support near the 10-day moving average at 2.13. Additional support on natural gas is seen near the August lows at 2.03. Resistance is seen near the August highs at 2.33. Short term momentum is moving higher as the fast stochastic has a positive trajectory. Medium term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).  The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

US LNG Exports Slip

LNG exports decrease week over week, according to the EIA. Eight liquefied natural gas vessels, five from Sabine Pass, and one each from the Cove Point, Corpus Christi, and Cameron LNG export terminals with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 29 Bcf departed the United States between August 1 and August 7. One vessel was loading at the Sabine Pass and one at the Corpus Christi terminals on Wednesday.

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