Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rally But Close of Their Lows

Tropical storm threats continue to generate volatility
David Becker
Natural Gas

Natural gas prices shot up early but traders sold into the breakout, leaving prices hanging on just above support. Prices continue to remain volatile, as storms continue to threaten infrastructure. There is currently a storm in the southern Atlantic that is moving west, and NOAA thinks that there is a 70% chance that it will turn into a tropical cyclone. Hurricane Umberto is packing winds of 85-miles and hour, but there is no statistical threat that it will hit the Gulf of Mexico and threaten any natural gas installation.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices broke out above trend line resistance, but profit-taking weighed on prices, pushing them down to support levels. Prices closed on the lows of the session rising 1.25% on Monday. Support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 2.64. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.53. Short term momentum is flat as the fast stochastic moves sideways, with very little trajectory. The current reading on the fast stochastic is near 90, well above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

Natural Gas Consumption Rises

The EIA estimates that natural gas consumption in June 2019 was 2,099 Bcf, or 70.0 Bcf per day. This was an increase of 2.4% year over year compared to the 68.3 Bcf per day consumed in June 2018. Natural gas consumption for June was the highest level for the month since 2001, when EIA began using the current definitions for consuming sectors. Year over year total consumption of dry natural gas in June 2019 increased in three of the four consuming sectors. Deliveries of natural gas by the consuming sector in June 2019.

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