Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices rebounded on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 76 BCF build according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to remain mild, moving from warmer than normal throughout the country over the next 6-10 days, to mild on the coasts and normal in the mid-section during the next 8-14 days. Hurricane Delta is headed for the Gulf of Mexico where it is expected to make landfall as a category 3 or 4 storms, in Louisiana on Friday. Approximately 20% of the US natural gas has now been shut in due to the storm. LNG exports rose in the latest week, slightly increasing demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices whipsawed closing higher on Wednesday rising 3.3%, making a lower high and a lower low, which is generally the sign of a downtrend. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.63. Support is seen near the October lows at 2.37. The 10-day moving average recently crossed below the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term downtrend is now in place. Momentum is neutral to positive. The RSI (relative strength index) is moving higher bounding from oversold levels. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in negative territory with a rising trajectory that points to consolidation.

LNG Exports Rose Week over Week

US LNG exports rose week over week. Fourteen LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 50 Bcf departed the United States between September 24 and September 30, according to shipping data provided by the Energy Information Administration.