Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Forecast

Key Insights

• Natural gas prices moved higher and settled well off the lows
• Prices formed a Doji Day.
• The weather is expected to be hotter than normal in the West and South.

On Wednesday, natural gas prices moved higher, forming a Doji Day, which is a sign of indecision. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout most of the West South East next 6-10 and 8-14 days. No active tropical disturbances are expected to become cyclones in the next 48 hours.

Gas arriving at LNG terminals remained stable at approximately 2-bcf per day lower because of the fire in the Freeport LNG‘s natural gas liquefaction plant in South Texas on June 8, 2022. The fire has led to the full shutdown of the facility. According to facility officials, the plant is expected to close until the middle of September.

Less export should lead to slightly more available gas, which is why prices have already moved lower.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices formed a Doji day which is a sign of indecision. Support is seen near a horizontal trend line that comes in at 6.73.

Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Prices are oversold as the fast stochastic is printing a reading of 9, below the oversold trigger level of 20.

Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This scenario occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The MACD histogram prints in negative territory with a falling trajectory which points to lower prices.