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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Report

By:
David Becker
Published: Nov 3, 2021, 17:49 UTC

Expectations are for a 65 Bcf build in stockpiles

Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices continued to rebound on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 65 Bcf build in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. The weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout the mid-West over the next 6-10 days but then the warm weather will move east and sit their for the following 8-14 days. There are no significant tropical disturbances in the Atlantic that are treating to become a tropical cyclone over the next 48-hours. U.S. supply of natural gas increased slightly in the latest week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas continued to rally, recapturing resistance which is former support near the 10-day moving average at 5.59 . Additional support near the 50-day moving average at 5.24. Resistance is seen near the October highs at 5.28. Short-term momentum reversed and turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

U.S. supply of natural gas this report week is up slightly as a result of increased dry natural gas production. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 1.4% when compared with the previous report week’s total of 98.1Bcf per day Nearly all of this increase was the result of dry natural gas production growing week over week by 1.5%. Average net imports from Canada increased by 1.1% from last week to 5.8 Bcf/d, the highest weekly average since the third week of February 2021.

About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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