Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices attempted to push higher but ran into resistance ahead Thursday inventory report from the Department of energy. Expectations are for a 106 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. This follows last week’s 109 Bcf build. The weather is expected to remain warmer than normal in the mid-west and east coast for the next 2-weeks driving up cooling demand. A stronger than expected ADP private payroll report helped buoy prices. Natural gas storage capacity in the United States was unchanged last year according to a recent report from the EIA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rebounded after breaking through trend line support on Monday. Prices hit resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1.95. Support is seen near the June lows at 1.84. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 25, moving average the oversold trigger level of 20 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Storage of Natural gas Remain Stagnant

Underground natural gas storage capacity in the Lower 48 states has remained relatively flat since 2012. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that working natural gas storage capacity is measured in two ways: design capacity and demonstrated peak capacity. Both measures of capacity were relatively unchanged in 2019; design capacity declined 0.4% and demonstrated peak capacity increased 0.1% compared with 2018.