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Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Finish the Week in the Red

The weather is forecast to be warmer than normal over the 8-14 day forecast
David Becker

Natural gas prices rebound on Friday climbing more than 1%, but settle down 0.7% for the week. Dry natural gas production rose in January to the third-highest monthly production figure on record. Prices have declined in February to the lowest February seen in the last 20-years. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal over the next 6-10 days and then turn milder during the 8-14 day forecast according to NOAA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices were higher on Friday but finished the week in the red. Prices edge above support near the 10-day moving average at 1.83. Resistance is seen near the February highs at 1.91. Medium term weekly momentum is negative as the  MACD histogram prints in the red with a declining trajectory which points to accelerating negative momentum. Short term week momentum has turned positive and generated a crossover buy signal in oversold territory and is also accelerating higher.

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Production Rises in January

Dry natural gas production in January 2020 averaged about 95.0 billion cubic feet per day according to the EIA. The EIA says that in January 2020 the United States saw the third-highest monthly U.S. natural gas production on record, down slightly from the previous two months. Natural gas consumption by residential, commercial, industrial, and electric power sectors averaged 96 Bcf per day for January, which was about 4.4 Bcf per day less than the average for January 2019, largely because of decreases in residential and commercial consumption as a result of warmer temperatures.

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