Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but the Weather Remain Tepid

Natural gas prices rebounded for a fourth consecutive trading session and form a bear flag pattern. This is a pause that refreshes lower. The weather pattern is changing slightly as cold weather is moving into the West Coast, which appears to be a normal zonal flow. On the East Coast and mid-West, the weather is expected to be much warmer than normal during the next 2-weeks.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices formed a bull flag pattern that is pause that refreshes lower. Momentum is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices. Prices are oversold. The fast stochastic is printing a reading of 10, well below the oversold trigger level of 20. Short-term momentum is positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal.

U.S. Supplies Decline

U.S. supply of natural gas decreases slightly across most sectors this report week. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.1% compared with the previous report week. Compared with last week’s 96.1 Bcf per day, dry natural gas production decreased by 0.7% to 95.4 Bcf/d this week. Average net imports from Canada fell to 4.8 Bcf per day which is 7.8% below last week’s.