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David Becker

Natural gas prices moved higher on Thursday following the Department of Energy’s inventory report. The weather is expected to be colder than normal for the next 2-weeks especially in the mid-west according to the latest weather forecast from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There are no disturbances that are expected to become tropical cyclones over the next 48-hours according to NOAA.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices rallied another 2.65% following Tuesday nearly 7% rise. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.7. Resistance is seen near the September highs at 3. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum is poised to turn positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) line is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

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Inventories Rise In Line with Expectations

Natural gas in storage was 3,680 Bcf as of Friday, September 18, 2020, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 66 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 67 Bcf build according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 504 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 407 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,273 Bcf. At 3,680 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

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